The new climate deal sounds great - it's nowhere near enough

There is a particular kind of celebration that happens at the end of every major climate summit. Diplomats embrace, cameras flash, and press releases announce historic breakthroughs. The Geneva Climate Agreement is no different - and that should worry us.

Yes, the deal commits 195 nations to cutting emissions by 50% by 2035. Yes, the $100 billion annual fund for developing nations is welcome. But let's be honest about what the science actually tells us: even full implementation of these targets gives us only a 50/50 chance of staying below 1.5°C of warming. Those are coin-flip odds with the future of civilisation at stake.

The Gap Between Promise and Physics

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been unambiguous: to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, global emissions need to fall by 65% by 2035, not 50%. That 15-percentage-point gap may sound small, but it represents the difference between a manageable climate future and one where feedback loops begin to take over.

We should acknowledge progress where it exists. But let's not confuse a step forward with arrival at the destination.